Deterring ‘Able Archer’: Comments Arising from Adamsky’s ‘Lessons for Deterrence Theory and Practice’

This is a short commentary on Dmitry Adamsky’s recent article ‘The 1983 Nuclear Crisis – Lessons for Deterrence Theory and Practice’. First, it teases out nuances in the relationship between deterrence and strategy and considers deterrence to be both a strategy and an effect. Second, it explores the culminating point of deterrence in theory and considers it untenable, as it does not conform to the logic of, or to any logic analogous to, Clausewitz’s culminating point of victory. Deterrence logically cannot culminate. Moreover, any culminating point of deterrence would ignore why the potential deteree should perceive the actions of his deterrer in such a way as to render strengthened strategies of deterrence counterproductive. It is the deteree who is the only strategic actor to determine whether the deterrer is actually practising a successful strategy of deterrence or not.     

15cm×15cm 磁悬挂天平系统(MSBS)的电磁场分析与计算

本文采用二维电磁场有限元法及磁路的简化计算法对15cm×15cm磁悬挂天平系统（MSBS）的阻力线圈间距、磁场的分布情况进行了分析计算,并与测试结果进行了分析比较,给出了15cm×15cm磁悬挂天平系统（MSBS）的结构方案。     

Research on fuze microswitch based on corona discharge effect

Abnormal voltages such as electrostatic, constant current, and strong electromagnetic signals can erro-neously trigger operation of MEMS pyrotechnics and control systems in a fuze, which may result in casualties. This study designs a solid-state micro-scale switch by combining the corona gas discharge theory of asymmetric electric fields and Peek's Law. The MEMS switch can be transferred from "off" to"on" through the gas breakdown between the corona electrodes. In the model, one of the two electrodes is spherical and the other flat, so a non-uniform electric field is formed around the electrodes. The theoretical work is as follows. First, the relation among the radius of curvature of the spherical electrode, the discharge gap, and the air breakdown voltage is obtained; to meet the low voltage (30-60 V) required to drive the MEMS switch, the radius of curvature of the spherical electrode needs to be 10-50 μm and the discharge gap between the two electrodes needs to be 9-11 μm. Second, the optimal ratio ε is introduced to parameterize the model. Finally, the corona discharge structural parameters are determined by comparing the theoretical and electric field simulation results. The switch is then fabricated via MEMS processing. A hardware test platform is built and the performing chip tested. It is found that when the electrode gap is 9 μm, the electrostatic voltage is at least 37.3 V, with an error of 2.6% between the actual and theoretical air breakdown voltages. When the electrode gap is 11 μm, the electrostatic voltage is at least 42.3 V, with an error of 10.5% between the actual and theoretical air breakdown voltages. Both cases meet the design requirements.     

扭杆式坦克悬挂系统的强度分析

针对目前悬挂系统设计理论的不足,运用工程力学中的卡氏第二定理和莫尔法求出负重轮行程与所受载荷之间的理论关系,并考虑了平衡肘的变截面对应力状态的影响,进而得到系统内关键点处的应力值;在理论分析的基础上,由简单到复杂,分别建立了初步模型、修正模型和最终的实体模型.应用有限元软件对悬挂系统进行三维数值模拟,计算了悬挂系统的应力场和位移场.理论分析和数值模拟的结果表明:悬挂系统力学模型较好地描述了悬挂系统的实际情况;有限元计算模型对于扭杆式悬挂系统强度计算非常有效,所得应力集中区与实际失效情况基本一致;应用本研究结果,可对悬挂系统作进一步的疲劳分析.     

主动悬挂原理试验机动平台的设计及试验研究

某型坦克采用扭杆弹簧而无阻尼器的被动悬挂系统,实际行驶中车体的振动较大,严重影响了其行驶平稳性和乘坐舒适性;为了提高车辆的行驶平顺性和操纵稳定性,进而提高在复杂路面上的越野速度,设计了该型坦克的慢主动悬挂原理试验机动平台,采用模糊RBF神经网络自适应控制策略对主动悬挂平台进行了实车试验,结果表明车体的减振性能得到了明显的提高,验证了所设计的慢主动悬挂系统的优越性。     

军用飞机服役过程的风险管理

墨菲定理指出系统危险源必然引发事故,海恩法则强调事故发生是量的积累,因此欲提高飞机这种高风险系统的服役安全就必须展开风险管理。风险管理是安全管理的重要组成部分,系统安全性理论是安全管理的基础,在对系统安全性进行定义、明确目标和组成的基础上,建立了一种适用于飞机服役过程的风险管理模型,并分析了其风险控制步骤,对于飞机服役过程的风险管理有一定的指导意义。     

炮射悬浮式GPS干扰弹靶场试验与评估

为解决炮射悬浮式GPS干扰弹的研制与应用问题,进行了炮射悬浮式GPS干扰弹靶场试验与评估研究,提出了基于雷达、GPS接收机和计算机的靶场试验解决方案和数据处理方法,给出了基于蜂窝结构的干扰弹分布覆盖设计步骤,提出了包括功能性指标、可靠性指标和安全性指标的炮射悬浮式GPS干扰弹评估方法,定义了各评估指标的效益函数。     

浅谈Y2K

Ｙ２Ｋ（计算机２０００年问题）的解决现在已迫在眉睫,文章在讲述 Ｙ２Ｋ的产生及其危害的前提下,提出了Ｙ２Ｋ的测试及解决办法,并阐述了我国目前在Ｙ２Ｋ问题上的工作及成果。     

含灭火添加剂细水雾粒径分布规律

为了研究含灭火添加剂细水雾灭火机理,从添加剂对细水雾粒径分布的影响着手,利用全自动表面张力仪、实时喷雾激光粒度仪对含不同添加剂的细水雾粒径分布进行了研究。结果表明：磷酸二氢铵和尿素使水的表面张力略有增加,氟表面活性剂（Fc-134）和碳氢表面活性剂（APG）以及由4种添加剂组成的复合添加剂使水的表面张力大幅降低;磷酸二氢铵使粒径为2.09～26.23μm的雾滴数略有减少,粒径为31.06～462.33μm的雾滴数略有增加;氟表面活性剂（Fc-134）使粒径为8.05～22.16μm的雾滴数增加,粒径为22.17～278.64μm的雾滴数减少,粒径为278.65～1075.09μm的雾滴完全消失;碳氢表面活性剂（APG）使粒径为2.09～31.06μm的雾滴数减少,粒径为36.77～141.86μm的雾滴数增加;而复合添加剂使粒径为2.09～31.06μm的雾滴数减少,粒径为36.77～198.82μm的雾滴数增加。     

How Different Terrorist Attacks Affect Stock Markets

Terrorist attacks adversely affect the Pakistani stock market. However, such effect is short-lived: the market recovers from terrorist shocks in one day. The impact of attack depends on the locations and types of attack. The more severe the attack (i.e. more people killed), the more negative is the KSE-100 index return. Most interestingly, stock market contains information about future attacks. In sum, different tactics of terrorists have varied effects on financial markets, which in turn can predict terrorist attacks.